Political Parties See Shifts in Support in Latest Maskína Survey
In a recent survey conducted by Maskína, the People’s Party (Flokkur fólksins) and the Progressive Party (Framsóknarflokkurinn) have each increased their support by two percentage points. In contrast, the Social Democratic Alliance (Samfylkingin) and the Reform Party (Viðreisn) have seen declines of two percentage points. Other parties have experienced minimal changes in their support levels, although the Pirate Party (Píratar) has surpassed the 5% mark.
Insignificant Difference Between Samfylkingin and Viðreisn
According to the survey, there is no significant difference in the support for Samfylkingin and Viðreisn. The Social Democratic Alliance is polling at 20.4%, down from 22.7% in the previous survey. Meanwhile, Viðreisn is now at 19.2%, having dropped from 20.9%. The Independence Party (Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn) is currently polling at 14.5%, a slight decrease from 14.6% in the last survey by Maskína. The Center Party (Miðflokkurinn) stands at 11.6%, having lost over three percentage points since November 7.
People’s Party and Progressive Party Show the Greatest Gains
Both the People’s Party and the Progressive Party have increased their support in the latest survey. The People’s Party is now at 10.8%, up from 8.8% in the previous Maskína survey. The difference in support between the People’s Party and the Center Party is not statistically significant. The Progressive Party has also gained two percentage points, now polling at 7.8%, up from 5.9%.
Stable Support for Other Parties
The Socialist Party (Sósíalistaflokkurinn) remains unchanged from the last survey, holding steady at 5% support. Meanwhile, the Left-Green Movement (VG) is at 3.7%, the Democracy Party (Lýðræðisflokkurinn) at 1.1%, and Responsible Future (Ábyrg framtíð) at 0.5%.
Parliamentary Seats Distribution According to Maskína
The Maskína survey also outlines the distribution of parliamentary seats nationwide. The Social Democratic Alliance is projected to gain 14 seats, the Reform Party 13, the Independence Party 10, the Center Party 8, the People’s Party 7, the Progressive Party 5, the Pirate Party 3, and the Socialist Party 3. Based on this information, Samfylkingin and Viðreisn together hold 27 seats, presenting four potential options to form a three-party coalition. However, forming a majority with just two parties seems unlikely. It is important to note that different polling organizations calculate seat distribution differently, so these results should be seen as a guideline rather than a definitive outcome.
Regional Support Variations
The background information of the survey indicates that the Social Democratic Alliance is the leading party in all constituencies except the Southwest. In the Southwest constituency, the Reform Party holds the largest support, while the Independence Party dominates in the Southern constituency. The People’s Party garners the most support from individuals with primary education and incomes below 550,000 ISK. Meanwhile, Viðreisn attracts significant backing from those earning 1,600,000 ISK or more. Both Samfylkingin and Viðreisn draw substantial support from individuals with university degrees.
Analysis of the Political Climate
The recent fluctuations in party support as evidenced by the Maskína survey reflect a dynamic political landscape in Iceland. The gains for the People’s Party and Progressive Party suggest a growing appeal among voters possibly seeking alternatives to the traditional political forces. This shift could be indicative of public sentiment responding to current socio-economic conditions, including issues such as income inequality and education.
Conversely, the decline in support for parties like Samfylkingin and Viðreisn may prompt these parties to reassess their strategies and policy proposals to regain voter confidence. The stable support for smaller parties like the Socialist Party and the Pirate Party highlights the continued presence of niche political ideologies within the Icelandic electorate.
Overall, the survey results underscore the complexity and unpredictability of voter behavior, emphasizing the need for political parties to remain adaptable and responsive to the evolving priorities of the Icelandic public.