Political Parties Neck and Neck in Recent Poll
A new poll conducted by Maskína for the news agencies Stöð 2, Vísir, and Bylgjan shows no significant difference in support between the political parties Viðreisn and Samfylkingin. The Socialists have gained two percentage points, while the Centre Party has lost slightly more than two points.
Survey Details and Insights
The survey, conducted from November 8 to 13, 2024, involved 1,463 respondents who expressed their political party preference. The results show Samfylkingin with 20.1% support, a slight decrease from 20.9% in the previous Maskína poll. Meanwhile, Viðreisn has increased its support to just over 19%, gaining half a percentage point. The gap between the two parties, which was approximately one percentage point in the last poll, has now narrowed significantly.
In the Maskína poll conducted on October 18, there was a six percentage point difference between the two parties, with Samfylkingin at 22.2% and Viðreisn at 16.2%. Since Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson announced the dissolution of the government, there have been fluctuations in the support for both Samfylkingin and Viðreisn, though Samfylkingin’s support seems to be generally declining, while Viðreisn’s is on the rise.
Current Political Landscape
The Centre Party is currently at 12.6%, down from 14.9% in the previous poll, and significantly lower than its peak of 17% in the Maskína poll from October 18. The party reached its highest level of support in the Gallup national survey on October 1, at 18.6%, but has been on a downward trend since then. This is the lowest level of support the party has received since that time.
The Independence Party remains steady at 13.4%, only a slight change from the 13.3% in the last Maskína poll. At the end of October, the party had 13.9%, indicating stability in Maskína’s polls. If this trend continues, the party could secure around 10 seats in parliament, losing six seats from the last election.
Other governing parties, like the Left-Green Movement, continue to poll below the parliamentary threshold at 3.4%. The Progressive Party remains around 7%, consistent with the previous two polls. With this level of support, the party would gain 5 seats, losing 8 seats.
The People’s Party has slightly increased its support, currently at 9.2%, aligning with the previous two polls’ results. Despite fluctuations in surveys, the party’s support is estimated to be between 6% and 10%.
The Socialists have gained 2% since the last poll, now at 6.3%. They also showed an increase in the previous poll, continuing to consistently surpass the 6% mark.
The Pirate Party is polling at 5.1%, the Democracy Party at 2.1%, and Responsible Future at 0.6%.
Analysis and Implications
The narrowing gap between Viðreisn and Samfylkingin highlights a shifting dynamic in Icelandic politics. As Samfylkingin’s support wanes, Viðreisn’s rise suggests an opportunity for the party to capitalize on potential voter discontent with traditional parties. The Centre Party’s decline indicates challenges in maintaining its previous momentum, possibly due to internal or external political factors.
The consistent support for the Independence Party and the minor parties suggests a stable base, but the possibility of losing seats highlights the changing political landscape. The Left-Green Movement’s continued struggle to gain traction could signal a need for strategic changes to appeal to a broader electorate.
Overall, the political scene in Iceland appears dynamic, with smaller parties like the Socialists gaining ground, potentially altering future coalition possibilities. As elections approach, these trends will be crucial for parties strategizing to maximize their parliamentary representation and influence. The evolving voter sentiment will likely play a significant role in shaping the next government, emphasizing the importance of adapting to the electorate’s changing priorities and concerns.